Prysm Global conducted the first comprehensive study of the demand for and supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) for the UK aviation industry. The aim of the report – conducted by the former CEO of BP Biofuels Phil New – is to provide the technical and economic evidence base for changes to SAF regulations to increase supply and reduce risk and cost to airlines – without compromising the Net Zero target. The aim of the recommendations is to ensure that SAF works – and reduces emissions for the least economic cost. The report was funded by airlines, airports, fuel companies and equipment manufacturers.
SAF is essential for the aviation industry to make its contribution to the UK’s statutory objective of getting to Net Zero. It is the most material direct decarbonisation lever available to the sector for at least the next 15 years. Other technologies such as hydrogen planes are further down the line.
The Government passed the SAF mandate in 2024 requiring airlines operating from the UK to purchase increasing amounts of aviation fuel. However, there are various challenges that must be overcome for SAF to play its full role in decarbonisation. The SAF market is nascent – with many of the technologies to produce it new. SAF costs more than fossil fuels – and most potential ways of making SAF have not yet been commercialised. There is some voluntary demand, but any material use of SAF as a decarbonisation tool requires policy intervention. Governments around the world recognise this and are developing programmes to stimulate the adoption of SAF.
SAF is a global market, so it is only by modelling supply and demand of SAF, produced from a wide range of feedstocks, that a forecast can be made of how the mandate will work in practice. Prysm Global was supported by a range of academic modellers, including from Cranfield University.